Louisiana Statewide 2019 Democratic Likely Voter Results

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We Ask America, a nationally recognized polling firm, today, released the fourth in a series of statewide public opinion polls from across the country.  The fourth state surveyed is Louisiana and took the pulse of likely 2019 Democratic voters’ opinions about Governor John Bel Edwards’ decision to sign recent legislation regarding abortion.

We Ask America previously released polls for three other states: a statewide survey of Likely 2020 Republican Primary voters in Nebraska to assess the landscape ahead of a potential primary for Senator Ben Sasse and to gauge voter’s attitudes regarding the debate over property taxes in Lincoln; a statewide survey of Registered Voters in Illinois to assess the direction of the state, the job performance of its leaders, and their opinion on Governor JB Pritzker’s recent budget address; and a statewide survey of Registered Voters in Indiana to gauge voter’s opinions about the job performance of its leaders, their opinion on the legal age to purchase tobacco, and local Democrats’ preference on presidential candidates.

Governor John Bel Edwards took a major political risk signing Louisiana’s abortion bill recently and could pay the price as he seeks re-election this fall based on the findings of a new We Ask America poll conducted between June 5th and 6th.  Surveying Democrats who are likely to vote in October’s primary election, Governor Edwards will have his work cut out for him to bring home his base.

As it stands, younger, more liberal Democrats will be crucial for Governor Edwards to compete, not only in the October primary, but in a likely November run-off against one of the two declared Republican candidates.  Those same young Democrats, though, are not nearly as committed to voting as older Democrats, and Governor Edwards’ position on abortion threatens to dampen their enthusiasm in turning out to vote, complicating a crucial element of Edwards’ path towards re-election.      

CLICK HERE FOR TOPLINE RESULTS

CLICK HERE FOR CROSSTAB RESULTS

KEY FINDINGS

  • Younger Democratic votes are not fully engaged in voting, yet.  Just 57% of 18-35 year olds indicate they are “Certain” to vote in October at this point, while 29% say they are “Very Likely” and 14% are “Somewhat Likely”.  Conversely, 93% of 51-65 year olds and 90% of 66+ year olds indicate they are “Certain” to vote this October.

  • News of the governor’s signature to the abortion bill has sunk in.  81% of Democratic likely voters have recently seen, read or heard something about Governor Edwards decision to sign a legislation restricting a woman’s right to have an abortion.  A whopping 92% of 18-35 year olds have consumed some information about the legislation as well.

  • Democrats know about his decision and don’t like it.  Just one-third of Democrats (32%) support Governor Edwards position on abortion, while just under two-thirds (60%) oppose his position.  Over one-quarter (28%) strongly oppose his position.  Among 66+ year olds, 50% support his position on abortion versus 42% who oppose it.  Among 18-35 year old Democrats, a massive 80% oppose the governor’s stance on abortion, with just 13% supporting it.

  • There is a sizable group of Democrats who would like to see another Democratic candidate enter the race. 42% of Democrats would like another Democratic candidate to run for governor in October, while just as many, 43%, say they would not. Among 18-35 year olds, two-third (64%) would like to see a different Democratic candidate.

Methodology

This poll was conducted between June 5th and 6th, 2019 using a blend of automated calls to landlines and live-operator calls to cell phones.  In all, 500 interviews were achieved among registered Democrat voters in Louisiana, who are likely to vote in the 2019 October primary election.  150 of these responses came from cell phones.  The Margin of Error for this survey is +/- 4.38% at a Confidence Interval of 95%

Evan Walker